Friday, December 18, 2020

A JUICED-UP DIVIDE

 

[Note:  From time to time, this blog issues a set of postings that summarize what the blog has been emphasizing in its previous postings.  Of late, the blog has been looking at various obstacles civics educators face in teaching their subject.  It’s time to post a series of such summary accounts.  The advantage of such summaries is to introduce new readers to the blog and to provide a different context by which to review the blog’s various claims and arguments.  This and upcoming summary postings will be preceded by this message.]

With this posting, this blog will begin addressing directly the extreme polarization of the nation’s political arena.  The nation is divided into two grand alliances in which the populous find themselves supporting one side or the other of various issues they might have never considered important and worthy of their attention, much less their support in the past. 

Why?  Because their side in this polarized landscape support them and they need the support of those who favor whatever particular issues their side favors.  In past postings, this blog has explained how this came about and how it continues to be in effect.  This posting, and the ones that follow, add more substance to what is affecting the continuance of this divide.

To begin, the polarization can be detected by how it manifests itself between the two major political parties.  Now parties have been around almost since the beginning of the republic, but of late their antagonism toward each other has intensified.  For example, a recent Pew study found that party affiliation ranked as a higher indicator of how people felt about various issues concerning the coronavirus crisis than other demographic factors such as race, gender, location (urban vs. rural), and age. 

What seems to be highlighted by that study is how respondents observed the divide between red (Republican) states and blue (Democratic) states and this finding was particularly strident in Western states – mostly red ones – since they seemed highly conscious of this divide.[1]  Some have described this as the interior states being at odds with the east and west coastal states.

In another conception of this divide, long standing ribbing between “city slickers” and “country bumkins” seems to have escalated to open hostility among many who represent one side or the other.  Those red states are generally rural states while blue ones have higher proportions of their populations living in cities.

They are even affecting family relationships and long standing friendships.  And yet an analysis by the journalist Ezra Klein[2] demonstrates how a recent national election did not demonstrate a sudden change in how Americans see ongoing issues – to the extent that voting behavior for one party as opposed to the other reflects such biases or preferences. 

For example, the candidate Trump in 2016 did not garner a greater or lesser percentage of votes from various demographic groups than previous Republican candidates (Romney and McCain).  As reported earlier in this blog, the political scientist Larry Bartels points out, “The 2016 election didn’t look like a glitch, he [Bartels] said.  It looked, for the most part, like every other election we’ve had recently.”[3] 

Of course, no two election turnouts are exactly the same and in 2016 there was a “sharp” move toward Trump among noncollege educated whites in certain states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Klein interprets this move as reflecting the polarized landscape and of these voters’ polarized views, especially among that demographic group, as it reacted to Trump. 

He was, according to American norms, a bizarre candidate and he captured the imaginations one can attach to some identity groups.  Among them is white, noncollege educated men and the voter data seems to support that general linkage.  It also indicates how solidified those attitudes and beliefs are. 

Since then, the election in 2020 – before any extensive analysis has been done – seems to support a continuance of these trends.  The difference is that since 2016, the nation has had four years of a Trump administration.  The actions of that administration – e.g., its treatment of immigrant children at the southern border, the president’s cozying up to authoritarian leaders, his seeking of illegal political assistance from foreign leaders, and the perceived ineffectiveness of the government in meeting the coronavirus pandemic – has created a counter base. 

That is, along with Trump’s base, there is another base dedicated to his defeat at the polls.  That is what happened in 2020.  This writer feels that this later development has not received sufficient attention by the media.  He judges that every time Trump engages in rhetoric, actions, or he issues policy proposals meant to stoke his base, he simultaneously has stoked the anti-Trump base.  And, as it turns out, both sides have been motivated by that stoking to at least go out and vote. 

The average turnout in presidential elections is around 60%.  The turnout in 2020 was 66.2%.  This is a significant increase, and it translates into the most cast votes of all time in American history, for the winning candidate, Joe Biden, which is only seconded by the number of votes for the losing candidate, Trump.  And since then, adding to the bifurcated environment has been the unproven charges that the election was stolen by the Democrats.  Apparently, the Trump base has readily accepted this charge to be true.



[1] “Republicans, Democrats Move Even Further Apart in Coronavirus Concerns,” Pew Research Center.

[2] Ezra Klein, Why We’re Polarized (New York, NY:  Avid Reader Press, 2020).

[3] Ibid., xi.

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