There is an anti-federalist plan
afoot. It is a plan that would more readily result in a minority of
voters “electing” a president. As it is, we have had such
results in the past. The last case was the selection of George W.
Bush in the 2000 election. Since voters do not directly elect a
president but choose a set of electors who serve on the
constitutionally created entity, the Electoral College, the
possibility remains that the winner could have fewer votes,
nationally, than the losing candidate. While this is possible, such
cases have been very rare. The first such case was the election of
John Quincy Adams in 1824. Adams, according to his defeated
opponent, Andrew Jackson, stole that election through a political
deal. Besides the 1824 and 2000 elections, the elections of 1876 and
1888 resulted with the candidate with the fewer number of votes
winning.
Why were these cases possible?
The writers of the Constitution were not that keen on the
average person having much say in selecting the chief executive. My
interpretation, and not original with me, is that there were several
factors involved in their decision to create the Electoral College.
Besides having a reserved trust in common wisdom, the founding
fathers did not see the office of the presidency being as powerful as
it has become. The center of power was to be the Congress whose
members represent citizens in the different areas of the country and
whose main task is to determine, through the issuance of laws, what
the government is to do. The job of the president was mainly to
carry out the wishes of Congress. Yes, the presidency, from its
beginning, was to take the lead in diplomacy and military matters.
But for a young and isolated nation, these two areas of concern were
not given the importance we give them today.
The other concern that led to
bypassing the popular vote was to protect the integrity of the
states, particularly the small states, that could be threatened by a
chief executive who owed his (at the time only men where considered)
selection to a national electorate. By allotting the number of
electoral votes equal to the total number of representatives from
each state in Congress – the number of representatives in the House
and Senate – the relative strength in a presidential
election between large and small states was narrowed a bit. Also, it
was and is the case that there are more small states than large
states. By counting electoral votes on a state by state basis, small
states, collectively, can carry enough votes to make sure any
candidate would not develop a platform that would be antagonistic to
small state interests. Also, since each state has two senators,
this, to a limited degree, limited the relative strength of one state
as compared to every other state. This concern for states reflects
the very federal ideal that each state is comprised of its unique
people. Each has its own sense of people-hood. As individuals are
equal, the founding fathers believed each “people” are also
equal. We have lost this sense of people-hood, but we can still see
remnants of it in the structure of the United Nations, for example,
where in the General Assembly each state/nation has, no matter how
large its size or population or how powerful, equal representation.
This ideal is very federal. Whether it should still hold sway over
the structural concerns of modern day America is up for debate.
For those who feel we are today
enough of a single nation – that is, hold a visceral sense of
one-ness – the argument for ridding ourselves of the Electoral
College seems natural and obvious. Whether we should rely on a
straight popular vote or manipulate how we select our electoral votes
in order to bypass the Electoral College is a question under
consideration. But there is another plan that I feel directly
threatens our federalist values. It is one that is being promoted by
the Republican Party in several states and has received support from
national spokespersons of that party. The plan calls for determining
each electoral vote not by the popular vote of a state but instead by
the popular vote of each Congressional district. Most states today
allocate all of their electoral votes to the candidate who wins a
plurality of the vote in the state. So, for example, in Florida, if
candidate X beats candidate Y, who comes in second by only one vote,
Florida casts its entire 27 electoral votes for candidate X. With a
bit of mathematical imagination, you can see why such a system at the
national level could result in the loser of the popular vote winning
the electoral vote and hence, the election. The proposed plan would
base the electoral vote allocation not by who wins the state, but who
wins each Congressional district within the state. With a bit more
mathematical imagination, you can see that the possibility of a loser
of the popular vote winning the election becomes more likely.
To explain these mathematical
machinations would take more space than it deserves here, but to
illustrate the point, if the last election occurred as these
Republicans are proposing, Barack Obama, who received over four
million votes (51%) more than Mitt Romney, would have lost the
election.1
Could that fact be motivating those who are proposing the change?
What do you think? But besides having this political effect, what
does this change represent to our constitutional make-up? Actually,
on the face of it, not much. After all, the Constitution
leaves it up to the states to determine how they will select their
electoral votes. But of course, reality is never that easy.
First, such a change would counter
a constitutional principle that has taken hold over the years. That
is “one person, one vote.” This principle developed as a result
of how state legislatures were formed in which rural areas were
over-represented at the expense of the interests of urban areas.
Finally, the Supreme Court mandated that states rearrange their
representation models to adequately protect urban citizens.
Summarizing its finding, the Court's decision has been described as
issuing a “one person, one vote” principle. In terms of
federalist thinking, this debate exposed a tension within that
perspective in that federalism generally supports state's
prerogatives. At a more fundamental level, though, that perspective
is based on the ideal that governance is created at the behest of
citizens, who are to be equal in terms of their legal status, coming
together to formulate and populate a governmental entity to serve
that citizenry – of, by, and for the people. The current
Republican proposal will, in effect, disenfranchise millions of urban
citizens. It is not a proposal that will prohibit people from
voting, but it will in effect render the votes of millions of voters
ineffectual. Basing elections on congressional districts, districts
drawn to further political aims, will result in such a
disenfranchisement. Proof for this assertion is found in the fact
that the current House of Representatives, a product of the last
election in 2012, is controlled by Republicans despite the fact that
the Democrats received over one million votes more than the
Republicans at the national level in those Congressional elections.
Whether we decide to keep the
Electoral College or not is a very good issue to entertain in a
civics class which is guided by federation theory. But of even more
paramount concern is whether we should choose electoral votes based
on Congressional districts. As it is, the current system, given that
each state has equal representation in the Senate, under-represents
the more urban states. Under-representation, in effect,
disenfranchises people. Often those people, so victimized, besides
being citizens who live in cities, are minorities since it is in
cities where minorities disproportionally live. This is anti-
federal; it is anti-democratic. Are we a nation ready to drift away
from these principles that have served us so well in the past? I
find it ironic that it is our conservative party promoting such a
plan. I have pointed out that in midterm elections the turnout is
smaller than in presidential elections; that those who vote in
midterms are usually voters who more emotionally identify with one of
the parties or who are upset by recently implemented polices. I
think that if Republicans establish this method of choosing electors,
they will anger those citizens who are disenfranchised. If they are
adequately informed by the Democrats, they could very well make up a
large block of angry voters. Given the proven ability of the Obama
camp to organize, they might very well take out their anger on the
Republicans in the 2014 midterm elections.
1The
mathematics is based on the distribution of voters for one candidate
or another over geographical areas. If the supporters of one
candidate are concentrated in one or two Congressional districts and
his/her opponent's supporters are spread over the other
Congressional districts, even though the first candidate has a
higher number of votes, the candidate who has a more spread out
support can win with fewer votes.