A Crucial Element of Democracy

This is a blog by Robert Gutierrez ...
While often taken for granted, civics education plays a crucial role in a democracy like ours. This Blog is dedicated to enticing its readers into taking an active role in the formulation of the civics curriculum found in their local schools. In order to do this, the Blog is offering a newer way to look at civics education, a newer construct - liberated federalism or federation theory. Daniel Elazar defines federalism as "the mode of political organization that unites separate polities within an overarching political system by distributing power among general and constituent governments in a manner designed to protect the existence and authority of both." It depends on its citizens acting in certain ways which Elazar calls federalism's processes. Federation theory, as applied to civics curriculum, has a set of aims. They are:
*Teach a view of government as a supra federated institution of society in which collective interests of the commonwealth are protected and advanced.
*Teach the philosophical basis of government's role as guardian of the grand partnership of citizens at both levels of individuals and associations of political and social intercourse.
*Convey the need of government to engender levels of support promoting a general sense of obligation and duty toward agreed upon goals and processes aimed at advancing the common betterment.
*Establish and justify a political morality which includes a process to assess whether that morality meets the needs of changing times while holding true to federalist values.
*Emphasize the integrity of the individual both in terms of liberty and equity in which each citizen is a member of a compacted arrangement and whose role is legally, politically, and socially congruent with the spirit of the Bill of Rights.
*Find a balance between a respect for national expertise and an encouragement of local, unsophisticated participation in policy decision-making and implementation.
Your input, as to the content of this Blog, is encouraged through this Blog directly or the Blog's email address: gravitascivics@gmail.com .
NOTE: This blog has led to the publication of a book. The title of that book is TOWARD A FEDERATED NATION: IMPLEMENTING NATIONAL CIVICS STANDARDS and it is available through Amazon in both ebook and paperback versions.

Friday, September 27, 2019

WHERE’S THE COFFEE MACHINE?


This writer is making his way through Ray Dalio’s Principles:  Life and Work,[1] a book that has two lists of principles that writer believes are crucial in living a productive life and in running a successful business.  The book will be the subject of future postings – while some of its language is questionable, a lot of its content is congruent with various basic points this blog promotes.  But for this posting, the gist of some of that book’s principles is relevant. 
While government is not a business and many of its services do not lend themselves to “metrics,” as are emphasized by Dalio, it is still an organized entity designed to accomplish various goals and ends as are businesses.  It also does not seek profits while, many argue, seeking profits is the ultimate goal of businesses or, at least, a very important one.
Of interest to civics classes would be how much can government structures and processes resemble business structures and processes.  Surely, ostensibly governments and businesses of any size share certain concerns.  But there is one area in which a wide gulf exists and that, in terms of the federal government and state governments, is the ability to rely on organizational history or memory especially among those officials who hold the top positions. 
Why?  Because every four or eight years the top management changes.  This by its very nature will and is very disruptive – it doesn’t totally eliminate historical factors, but it does limit them.
Of course, top management does not represent a total change in personnel.  Just on the civilian side of the federal government – excluding the Postal Service – there are two million employees.  On top of that, there is the military – nearly half a million.  That’s lot of people and they, for the most part, hold on to their jobs from one administration to another. 
They do have history and historical memory.  That memory affects, for good or bad, the performance of all those departments and agencies as they accommodate a new set of bosses, but not to the degree they function in the private sector.  In successful businesses, leadership can be in place for decades. 
In the case of the business Dalio ran, he was in the position of top executive through a long train of events.  Those events had effects both in terms of that business’s internal developments and external issues as well.  As an investment firm, national issues had profound effects on how that business was run.
So, when a new administration takes over, a large challenge for the newbies is to take hold of that work force, that bureaucracy, and get stuff done.  That has been the subject of such concern that recent Congresses have passed legislation to help new administrations during the transition period.  But before getting into those accommodations, more historical context needs to be pointed out.
It used to be that the term for the presidency began on March 4th, not the current date, January 20th.  In 1933 the nation was in the thick of a global depression – the Great Depression.  In the weeks between Franklin Roosevelt’s election in early November 1932 and inauguration day, economic conditions drastically worsened and the government, in between presidents and political parties, could not effectively react. 
The old bosses were leaving, and the newer ones were yet to take power.  After FDR took over, the move was on to push up the inauguration date to what it is today.  But this added to the challenge of sufficiently preparing the management team to put in place the policies the new president sought to enact or carry out.
The federal government, as the above workforce numbers indicate, is into a lot of things, a lot of services.  For the most part, these services reflect complex needs and complex policies.  In short, it is hard to run a government.  Michael Lewis provides a telling account of this recurring organizational challenge. 
He writes:
Most of the big problems inside the U.S. government were of the practical management sort and had nothing to do with political ideology.  A mundane but important example was how hard it was for any government agency to hire new people.  Some agencies couldn’t hire anyone without sixty different people signing off on him [or her].  The George W. Bush administration had begun to attack that particular problem.  The Obama administration, instead of running with work done during the Bush years, had simply started all over again.[2]
Now multiply this relatively simple concern across all the management responsibilities an organization – the federal government – must address.
          Lewis, relying on the work of Max Stier, goes on to describe Congress’s attempt to help in these matters.  It, through law, provides the major parties’ candidates for the presidency, along with relevant resources, free office space to house staffs that can begin addressing transition problems their candidate will face if he/she wins the election. 
Stier points out that there is among these candidates a reluctance to be too visible in any efforts their staffs exert in these matters from fear that they will be viewed as assuming success in the election – an unattractive image.  Congressional action here provides cover for those people’s concerns.  By both sides being given those resources, they are not viewed as initiating this preparatory work.
          Action by Congress in 2011-12 also allows a new President-elect to put in place people selected for new presidential appointments by reducing the total number of named individuals that need to secure Senate confirmation.  That number has been lowered from 1,400 to 1,200.  Some argue, Stier being one, this is still too many positions needing confirmation.
Finally, Congress in 2015 legislated various steps outgoing presidents needed to perform to assist new administration personnel.  These Congressional moves demonstrate the extent lawmakers saw these problems being of importance.[3]  Given how hard it is to get the sufficient numbers of congresspeople to pass legislation, here are three successful efforts aimed at this one concern.
          Lewis’ book is meant to provide a sort of a report card on how well the last transition – between Obama and Trump – was in terms of personnel choices, training new government workers, and new personnel understandings of the overall charges a department, agency, or office has.  Future postings will reflect on that report and how it provides insights into this general problem area.


[1] Ray Dalio, Principles:  Life and Work (New York, NY:  Simon and Schuster, 2017).

[2] Michael Lewis, The Fifth Risk (New York, NY:  W. W. Norton & Company, 2018), 26 (Kindle edition).

[3] Ibid.

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

IS THAT A BUBBLING NOISE?


This writer has made an economic point from time to time; that is, economic recessions seem to emanate from one of two conditions.  The first seems endemic to capitalist economies, they go through cycles – business cycles – that span from prosperity to recession and back again.  They do this because economic actors – that’s just about everyone – mostly decide independently.
That means that when times are good, they want to take advantage, spend more which increases demand which encourages increased production, which leads to higher employment, etc.  That means they behave in ways that further heat up economic activity.  The economy, as a result, overheats with inflationary prices and production is done at above full employment levels. 
One element feeds the other and eventually, usually government action, in the form of even higher interest rates, discourages investment and brings conditions back.  This often initiates a contractionary economy.  When that happens, again actors mostly behaving from their personal opportunities, spend less, leading to the above activities in reverse.
They withdraw investments and hunker down to withstand lower economic rewards – profits and the like – and lower prices.  Withdrawals lead to further withdrawals and a contraction occurs.  This up and down is normal, and no amount of government supervision has found a way to avoid this cyclical eventuality.
But there is another type of recession.  That is occurs when in a prosperity phase of the cycle, a number, and one is enough, assets’ prices shoot up beyond any semblance of their underlying value.  Since their prices are rising quickly and promise investors inordinate levels of profits, this attracts investors to further buy up those assets or their representations in terms of stocks, bonds, or mortgages.  This “fever,” it should be remembered, happens when due to prosperity, the general mood happens to be optimistic.  People start believing the old contractionary “bug” has been licked once and for all.
Of course, this further raises those assets’ prices and hyper inflationary progressions get going in terms of those assets.  This is similar to what happens in a regular cycle, but it usually revolves around a limited number – one or two – products and their price jumps seem to be on steroids.  These, in popular parlance, are called “bubbles.”  And bubbles eventually burst.
With that brief background – admittedly from a non-economist – what happened in 2008?  It was that year when the nation had to face the consequences of a bubble bursting.  This is a civic concern because nothing, over the long haul, affects politics more than economic factors.  The famous campaign blip – “it’s the economy, stupid” – can be applied to most if not all elections.  Having a job undergirds a voter’s ability to be viable.  Take that away and things get serious in the minds of most.  A poor economy threatens the vitality of the homestead.
To underline the above, one of many reactions to 2008 was offered by Richard A. Posner.  He is a former jurist and economist who usually favors conservative political messaging.  In the midst of the downturn, he offered the following:
The culprit is cheap credit rather than irrational behavior by business and consumers.  Cheap credit stimulates economic activity, causing asset prices to rise, including the prices of residential real estate, which is a huge part of the nation’s asset base.  To take advantage of these rising prices, would-be buyers borrow more, so lenders lend more, and prices are driven still higher, and lenders borrow more so that they can lend more.  Leverage tends to rise, and the rapid expansion of the banking industry causes strains.  At some point the asset-price increase becomes unsustainable, but no one will know in advance what that point is, and there is rational reluctance to forgo lucrative profit opportunities by bailing out before one senses that the plateau (followed by the inevitable crash) is about to be reached.  This pattern has been repeated time and again and in country after country.[1]
Bubble bursting leads to serious recessions or, as Posner sees the 2008 version, a depression. 
His concern seems a bit timely today in that the President has been pressuring the Federal Reserve (the FED) to lower interest rates at a time of full employment.  While there does not seem to be a real estate bubble going on – although real estate prices in the nation’s major cities seem extraordinarily high leading to increase homelessness in those urban areas – are there signs of another asset bubbling up?
          Well, there is corporation debt.  The main source or cause of high debt today is low interest rates.  Businesses that want to invest or meet expenses instead of using their cash reserves, are incentivized to borrow.  Why?  The cost of doing so is so low.  Consequently, the debt levels of these entities have inflated by levels last measured in the pre-2008 crash.  Back then, that debt reached by historical standards to relatively very high levels.  What about now?
Debt outstanding for nonfinancial businesses stood at a little over US$15 trillion by the of Q3 2018, with corporations accounting for 63.9 percent.  Between Q4 2010 and Q3 2018 – the period immediately after the bout of deleveraging [lowering debt] prompted by the Great Recession – nonfinancial businesses in the country have added about US$5 trillion to their overall debt, with nonfinancial corporations contributing US$3.5 trillion to this figure.  Indeed, since Q1 2011 (and until Q3 2018), debt outstanding among nonfinancial corporations grew by an average of 5.6 percent per quarter year over year.  At 46.4 percent of GDP in Q3 2018, nonfinancial corporations are carrying more debt today by this measure than they were just prior to the Great Recession.[2]
Worrisome?
          Beyond the proximity of these debt levels to the last crash – which is enough of a concern – when the next inevitable downturn takes place, the FED will have significantly less maneuvering ability to meet it – it lowers them during downturns to encourage business activity.  Why?  Because they currently have interest rates so low and will find it difficult to lower them more.  Perhaps in that situation, the FED can join other national banks and allow negative interest rates – where lenders or savers pay the banks to hold their money.
And, more relevant to the point of this posting, corporations with high debt are in a more vulnerable posture due to that debt.  With a downturn, it will be difficult to take on more debt.  In addition, there will be bankruptcies and a lot of debt will be erased at the expense of lenders – they will not be made whole and will lose a significant part of their investment or lending amount.  But can something else develop from these debt levels?  Can they be considered a bubble?
          Of course, all of this is not helped by record-breaking debt levels held by the federal government – apparently the huge tax breaks the government put in place in 2017 did not lead to the increases in production promised by those who made the decision to institute the lower taxes for high income individuals and corporations.
          These are the types of developments that put depression into economic depressions or recessions.  When the economy slides, they discourage people to invest.  The result, deeper recessions that last longer.  But before a recession begins, an economic player is only speculating whether the downturn will happen and when it will happen.  The question is not whether there will be a recession in the nation’s future, but when that recession will occur and what will cause it.  “Good luck to us all.”
          A short postscript:  for civics or American government teachers, the above sketchy description of the business cycle will probably suffice.  Such a teacher can count on an economic course to fill-in the details for students.



[1] Richard A. Posner, A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of '08 and the Descent into Depression (Cambridge, MA:  Harvard University Press, 2009), 105.

[2] Akrur Barua and Patricia Buckley, Dr., “Rising Corporate Debt:  Should We Worry?”, Deoloitte, April 15, 2019, September 23, 2019, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/issues-by-the-numbers/rising-corporate-debt-levels.html, (emphasis in the original).